Geiger, Tobias Levermann, Anders Frieler, Katja On predicting future economic losses from tropical cyclones: Comparing damage functions for the Eastern USA In Samoa, seven people were killed due to cyclone Ofa, thousands of people were left homeless and entire villages were destroyed. In Samoa, we describe devastation to the country caused by tropical cyclones Ofa (February 1990) and Val (December 1991) which were considered to be the worst cyclones to affect the Samoan islands since the 1889 Apia cyclone. Overall, damage caused by cyclone Kina was estimated as F170 million. Severe flooding on Viti Levu, combined with high tide and heavy seas led to destruction of the Sigatoka and Ba bridges, as well as almost complete loss of crops in Sigatoka and Navua deltas. Twenty three deaths have been reported making Kina one of the deadliest hurricanes in Fiji's recent history. Tropical cyclone Kina passed between Fiji's two main islands of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu, and directly over Levuka on the night of 2 January 1993 with hurricane force winds causing extensive damage. Nineteen deaths were reported and damage costs caused by cyclone Bebe were estimated as exceeding F20 million (F 1972). Cyclone Bebe (October 1972) affected the whole Fiji especially the Yasawa Islands, Viti Levu and Kadavu where hurricane force winds have been recorded. Analysing historical data, we describe the impacts of tropical cyclones Bebe and Kina on Fiji. Destructive winds and torrential rain associated with tropical cyclones can bring the most damaging weather conditions to the region causing economic and social hardship, affecting agricultural productivity, infrastructure and economic development which can persist for many years after the initial impact. We highlight examples of extreme weather events which have occurred in Fiji and Samoa in the last few decades and have caused major economic and social disruption in the countries. Costs of hazards such as tropical cyclones can be astronomical making enormous negative economic impacts on developing countries. Weather and climate hazards have significant impacts on Pacific Island Countries. Kuleshov, Yuriy Prakash, Bipendra Atalifo, Terry Waqaicelua, Alipate Seuseu, Sunny Ausetalia Titimaea, Mulipola Impacts of tropical cyclones on Fiji and Samoa Finally, our analysis shows that existing models of storm damages under climate change generate a wide range of predictions, ranging from moderate decreases to very large increases in losses. The ensemble predictions for Western North Pacific tropical cyclones and European wind storms (extratropical cyclones) are approximately one third of that magnitude. Potential changes in damages are greatest in the North Atlantic basin, where the multi-model average predicts that a 2.5Â☌ increase in global surface air temperature would cause hurricane damages to increase by 62 percent. Second, there is substantial variation in projected changes in losses across regions.
First, we find strong but not conclusive support for the hypothesis that climate change will cause damages from tropical cyclones and wind storms to increase, with most models (84 and 92 percent, respectively) predicting higher future storm damages due to climate change.
Our analysis produces three main empirical results. We estimate a probability distribution for the predicted impact of changes in global surface air temperatures on future storm damages, using an ensemble of 296 estimates of the temperature- damage relationship from twenty studies. This paper provides the first quantitative synthesis of the rapidly growing literature on future tropical and extratropical cyclone losses under climate change. Tropical and Extratropical Cyclone Damages under Climate Change
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